Why Overnight Changes Take Years to Happen

Kresimir Profaca
7 min readDec 9, 2024

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Are there really overnight changes? Can anything truly happen in a short time? While some transformations appear sudden, the reality is often far different. In leadership, what looks like an overnight success is usually the culmination of years of effort, persistence, and small, consistent actions.

Introduction: The Overnight Illusion

Leadership transformations often appear for the “outside observer” as sudden, dramatic events. Whether it’s the rise of a revolutionary product, the turnaround of a struggling company, or even a seismic shift in geopolitics, the world tends to notice the outcome, not the process. However, in most cases, if not all, the truth is far more complex.

Take the recent developments in Syria and the collapse of Assad’s regime. To the casual observer, it looks like a sudden and decisive change. But those familiar with the region understand that this tipping point was years in the making — a culmination of pressures, decisions, and incremental shifts that, over time, built the momentum for this moment.

Leadership often works the same way. Major successes and breakthroughs rarely happen overnight. Instead, they emerge from countless small actions — strategic decisions, cultural shifts, and unglamorous (sometimes even boring) persistence — that compound over time. I often say to my team members that “success is boring”. Meaning that all of the effort is repeating (training) many minuscule tasks over and over.

This phenomenon is what Jim Collins describes as the flywheel effect: each small push may seem insignificant at first, but together, they generate unstoppable momentum.

The challenge for leaders lies in staying patient and focused during the early phases when results are slow and progress feels almost invisible. It’s tempting to pivot or abandon a strategy when the curve looks flat. But as Collins highlights, the flat phase is necessary — because it’s not until the tipping point is reached that the hockey stick effect begins, and exponential growth becomes visible.

In leadership, patience is not just a virtue — it’s a strategy. It’s about trusting the process, investing in small, consistent efforts, and resisting the allure of quick fixes. True leadership understands that the flywheel is always turning, even when the results aren’t yet apparent.

Would you abandon your efforts during the flat phase of the curve — or do you have the patience to push forward and witness the tipping point?

Wheel cart ruts on an ancient Roman road, an example of persistence

The Flywheel Effect: Building Momentum

Leadership, much like pushing a flywheel, requires consistent effort over time. The flywheel doesn’t move quickly at first; each push feels almost inconsequential, and the wheel seems reluctant to turn. But over time, with repeated effort, the flywheel gains momentum. Eventually, the accumulated energy reaches a point where it spins on its own, almost effortlessly.

Jim Collins, in his book Good to Great, uses this analogy to explain how great companies achieve sustained success. The key insight is that it’s not about one singular, dramatic push but rather a series of consistent, small efforts that collectively build unstoppable momentum.

In leadership, the flywheel effect is often overlooked because the early stages are unremarkable. When results don’t appear immediately, leaders may feel disheartened or tempted to abandon the process altogether. But this is precisely the moment when patience and persistence matter most.

Sailing with no land in sight — but it does not mean we will give up

The Flat Phase: The Test of Leadership
The early phase of the flywheel’s rotation — the “flat” part of the curve — is where most of us struggle. This phase demands vision, discipline, and the ability to focus on long-term gains rather than short-term wins. It’s not glamorous, and it doesn’t attract applause nor even give confirmation that we are on the right track, and we might as well not be. There are no guarantees of success. But it’s in this phase that true leadership shines.

Leaders who understand the flywheel effect know that their efforts compound over time. Every team meeting, every mistake, every process improvement, every small win contributes to the eventual tipping point.

Patience, in this context, is not passive — it’s active.

It’s about staying committed to the strategy, reinforcing good habits, and encouraging the team to keep pushing, even when progress isn’t immediately visible.

Whole night we do not see the sun, but that does not mean it’s not there (photo by: Tama66)

The Hockey Stick Moment: Breaking Through
The beauty of the flywheel is that once it reaches its tipping point, the results often seem sudden and dramatic — what we refer to as the “hockey stick effect.” This is the phase where growth accelerates, and the fruits of all those small, consistent efforts become visible.

But here’s the critical insight: the tipping point doesn’t happen by accident. It’s the result of all the work that came before it. Leaders who can weather the slow, incremental phase are the ones who position themselves and their teams to capitalize on the breakthrough.

The flywheel effect is a reminder that success is not a single, isolated event — it’s the culmination of consistent effort, strategic focus, and unwavering patience. Leadership is about ensuring that the wheel keeps turning, even when it feels like no progress is being made. Because in time, that momentum becomes unstoppable.

The Usain Bolt Example: Excellence Is Built Off the Track

Examples of the flywheel effect can be found in all aspects of life. Being a track runner, I’d like to use the example from the track. Usain’s Bolt races last less than 10 seconds. How about training for those 10 seconds? It’s the hours, months, and even years of training that went into those few seconds.

Bolt once said, “I trained four years to run nine seconds, and people give up when they don’t see results in two months.” This encapsulates the essence of the flywheel effect. His success wasn’t built on a single, extraordinary moment — it was the result of countless hours of repetition, failure, and refinement. Every sprint on the track, every weight lifted in the gym, and every sacrifice he made contributed to those nine seconds of glory.

This ratio — the infinitesimal fraction of time his races lasted compared to the effort poured into training — reflects a key truth about success in any field. The visible outcome is only the tip of the iceberg, while the real work lies below the surface, invisible to most.

In leadership, this lesson applies directly. The big moments that define a team, company, or leader often come and go in an instant. But it’s the preparation — those long, repetitive, and sometimes tedious hours of pushing the flywheel — that determines whether those moments are victorious or disappointing.

So, as you lead your team or organization, remember Bolt’s example. The small, consistent efforts you and your team put in daily may feel insignificant now, but they are laying the foundation for that tipping point — your own nine seconds of glory. Patience, discipline, and trust in the process are the qualities that turn incremental progress into greatness.

Leadership is always a long road, sometimes with no end in sight

Conclusion: The Power of Patience in Leadership

Leadership, at its core, is not about quick wins or instant gratification. Yes, quick wins are sometimes useful tool, but at the end it’s about having the courage to trust in a long-term vision and the discipline to keep pushing forward, even when the results seem invisible. The flywheel effect, with its slow start and eventual exponential growth, reminds us that great outcomes are rarely the result of one dramatic push but of countless, consistent efforts over time.

True leadership shines in the flat phase — the moments of doubt, uncertainty, and monotony. It’s in these moments that leaders prove their mettle, staying patient and persistent while inspiring their teams to do the same. It’s about cultivating a culture where small wins are celebrated, where setbacks are reframed as opportunities, and where the focus remains steadfast on the bigger picture.

The “hockey stick moment” may grab the headlines, but it’s the steady, unglamorous work beforehand that defines success. Leaders who understand this don’t just create short-term gains; they build legacies. They know that the tipping point isn’t the end — it’s a new beginning, a chance to accelerate toward even greater heights.

As leaders, the challenge isn’t just to start the flywheel — it’s to keep it turning, day after day, until momentum becomes unstoppable. So, the next time you’re faced with the frustration of slow progress, remember: the greatest successes often come to those who have the patience to stay the course and the persistence to keep pushing.

In leadership, patience isn’t just a strategy — it’s the path to greatness. Will you embrace it?

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Kresimir Profaca
Kresimir Profaca

Written by Kresimir Profaca

Thinker, interested in social impact and in making world a better place. Learn, teach, use, repeat.

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